Comparison of Intent-to-Leave With Actual Turnover Within the FAA

Dollar CS, Broach D

FAA Office of Aerospace Medicine - Civil Aerospace Medical Institute

关键词: Human Capital Management;    Turnover;    Organizational Commitment;   

RP-ID  :  DOT/FAA/AM-06/30

美国|英语

来源: Federal Aviation Administration

【 摘 要 】

Introduction: Human capital planning in the federal sector relies upon past losses to estimate future turnover. Since the historical loss rate is a lagging indicator, an alternative estimate of future turnover might be derived from information about employee intent-to-leave. However, results from studies of the relationship between intent-to-leave and actual behavior have been mixed. Given the conflicting research findings, we investigated the correspondence between intent-to-leave and actual aggregate turnover rates in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).Methods: Data describing intent-to-leave in the next 12 months were obtained in Employee Attitude Surveys of employees in the last quarters of fiscal years 1997 (N=25,004), 2000 (N=24,469), and 2003 (N=22,720). Actual turnover rates for the following fiscal years (FY1998, 2001, 2004) were calculated from data extracted from the Agency�s official system of personnel records. The proportions of employees indicating intent-to-leave on each survey were compared with actual turnover using a Z-test of proportions. Results: Intent-to-leave expressed in each survey year significantly overestimated actual turnover in the year following the survey (1997 versus 1998, Z = 37.77, p < .001; 2000 versus 2001, Z = 13.74, p < .001; and 2003 versus 2004, Z = 3.46, p < .001). When analyzed by gender, intent-to-leave significantly overestimated actual turnover for both men and women. Analysis by minority status indicated that intent-to-leave overestimated actual turnover for minorities and non-minorities for the 1997/1998 and 2000/2001 but not for the 2003/2004 comparisons. Conclusion: While overall intent-to-leave expressed in surveys of employees does not appear to be of much use in predicting future turnover for the FAA, other variables (i.e., reasons for that intent, employee engagement, or organizational commitment) might prove beneficial in the agency�s human capital planning. We recommend that future research focus on analyses of those variables.