Capturing the uncertainty in adversary attack simulations.

Darby, John L. ; Brooks, Traci N. ; Berry, Robert Bruce

关键词: DETECTION;    EQUATIONS;    EQUIPMENT;    EVALUATION;    PROBABILITY;    RESOURCES;    SAMPLING;    SECURITY;    TIME DELAY;    TRAINING;    WORK Terrorism-Vulnerability-Analysis.;    Human intrusion-Analysis-Simulation.;   

DOI  :  10.2172/983673
RP-ID  :  SAND2008-5730
PID  :  OSTI ID: 983673
Others  :  TRN: US201014%%1749

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

This work provides a comprehensive uncertainty technique to evaluate uncertainty, resulting in a more realistic evaluation of PI, thereby requiring fewer resources to address scenarios and allowing resources to be used across more scenarios. For a given set of dversary resources, two types of uncertainty are associated with PI for a scenario: (1) aleatory (random) uncertainty for detection probabilities and time delays and (2) epistemic (state of knowledge) uncertainty for the adversary resources applied during an attack. Adversary esources consist of attributes (such as equipment and training) and knowledge about the security system; to date, most evaluations have assumed an adversary with very high resources, adding to the conservatism in the evaluation of PI. The aleatory uncertainty in PI is ddressed by assigning probability distributions to detection probabilities and time delays. A numerical sampling technique is used to evaluate PI, addressing the repeated variable dependence in the equation for PI.