New England Foot and Mouth Disease Tabletop Exercise

Hullinger, P

关键词: ANIMALS;    ARCHITECTURE;    DETECTION;    DISEASES;    DISTRIBUTION;    ECONOMICS;    SECURITY;    SIMULATION;    SIMULATORS;    STATISTICS;    US DOA;    USA;   

DOI  :  10.2172/945849
RP-ID  :  LLNL-TR-407425
PID  :  OSTI ID: 945849
Others  :  TRN: US200904%%172

学科分类：生物科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies (Figure 1). The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA will produce both overall and daily summary statistics for the outbreak, epidemic curves, and costs associated with the outbreak. This information can be used to reconstruct and analyze the course of the outbreak. Geographical information produced by MESA can be used to produce maps and movies as visual aids to understand the distribution characteristics of a simulated outbreak.