Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

Yoshimura, Ann S. ; Brandt, Larry D.

关键词: NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS;    FALLOUT;    SHELTERS;    URBAN AREAS;    URBAN POPULATIONS;    EVACUATION;    EMERGENCY PLANS;    RADIATION PROTECTION;    DECISION MAKING Public shelters-Planning.;    Nuclear bomb shelters.;    Nuclear detonation;    Fallout shelters.;   

DOI  :  10.2172/966943
RP-ID  :  SAND2009-3299
PID  :  OSTI ID: 966943
Others  :  TRN: US0904236

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.