An Introduction to Risk with a Focus on Design Diversity in the Stockpile

Noone, Bailey C¹ 

[1] Los Alamos National Laboratory

关键词: BUSINESS;    DEFECTS;    DESIGN;    MAINTENANCE;    MANAGEMENT;    NUCLEAR WEAPONS;    PROBABILITY;    RISK ASSESSMENT;    SAFETY;    SECURITY;    STOCKPILES;    TRAINING;    WEAPONS;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1048843
RP-ID  :  LA-UR-12-24076
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1048843
Others  :  TRN: US201217%%366

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

The maintenance and security of nuclear weapons in the stockpile involves decisions based on risk analysis and quantitative measures of risk. Risk is a factor in all decisions, a particularly important factor in decisions of a large scale. One example of high-risk decisions we will discuss is the risk involved in design diversity within the stockpile of nuclear weapons arsenal. Risk is defined as 'possibility of loss or injury' and the 'degree of probability of such loss' (Kaplan and Garrick 12). To introduce the risk involved with maintaining the weapons stockpile we will draw a parallel to the design and maintenance of Southwest Airlines fleet of Boeing 737 planes. The clear benefits for cost savings in maintenance of having a uniform fleet are what historically drove Southwest to have only Boeing 737s in their fleet. Less money and resources are need for maintenance, training, and materials. Naturally, risk accompanies those benefits. A defect in a part of the plane indicates a potential defect in that same part in all the planes of the fleet. As a result, safety, business, and credibility are at risk. How much variety or diversity does the fleet need to mitigate that risk? With that question in mind, a balance is needed to accommodate the different risks and benefits of the situation. In a similar way, risk is analyzed for the design and maintenance of nuclear weapons in the stockpile. In conclusion, risk must be as low as possible when it comes to the nuclear weapons stockpile. Design and care to keep the stockpile healthy involves all aspects of risk management. Design diversity is a method that helps to mitigate risk, and to help balance options in stockpile stewardship.