Implications of a PTC Extension on U.S. Wind Deployment

Lantz, E. ; Steinberg, D. ; Mendelsohn, M. ; Zinaman, O. ; James, T. ; Porro, G. ; Hand, M. ; Mai, T. ; Logan, J. ; Heeter, J. ; Bird, L.

关键词: WIND;    PRODUCTION TAX CREDIT;    PTC;    REEDS;    ANALYSIS;    Wind Energy;    Energy Analysis;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1128619
RP-ID  :  NREL/TP-6A20-61663
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1128619

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

This analysis explores the potential effects of wind production tax credit expiration and various extension scenarios on future wind deployment with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a model of the U.S. electricity sector. The analysis does not estimate the potential implications on government tax revenue associated with the PTC. Key findings include: Under a scenario in which the PTC is not extended and all other policies remain unchanged, wind capacity additions are expected to be between 3 and 5 GW per year from 2013-2020; PTC extension options that ramp-down from the current level to zero-credit by year-end 2022 appear to be insufficient to support deployment at the recent historical average; Extending the PTC at its historical level may provide the best opportunity to support deployment consistent with recent levels across a range of potential market conditions; it therefore may also provide the best opportunity to sustain wind power installation and manufacturing sector at current levels.