Temperature-based Instanton Analysis: Identifying Vulnerability in Transmission Networks

Kersulis, Jonas¹  Hiskens, Ian¹  Chertkov, Michael²  Backhaus, Scott N.²  Bienstock, Daniel³ 

[1] Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States);Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States);Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)

关键词: Energy Sciences;    Forecast uncertainty;    Optimization;    Transmission operations;    Wind energy;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1177981
RP-ID  :  LA-UR--15-22510
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1177981

学科分类：电力

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

A time-coupled instanton method for characterizing transmission network vulnerability to wind generation fluctuation is presented. To extend prior instanton work to multiple-time-step analysis, line constraints are specified in terms of temperature rather than current. An optimization formulation is developed to express the minimum wind forecast deviation such that at least one line is driven to its thermal limit. Results are shown for an IEEE RTS-96 system with several wind-farms.