Predicting the Response of Electricity Load to Climate Change

Sullivan, Patrick¹  Colman, Jesse¹  Kalendra, Eric¹ 

[1] National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

关键词: Electricity;    Load;    Climate Change;    Temperature;    ReEDS;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1215283
RP-ID  :  NREL/TP--6A20-64297
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1215283

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

Our purpose is to develop a methodology to quantify the impact of climate change on electric loads in the United States. We perform simple linear regression, assisted by geospatial smoothing, on paired temperature and load time-series to estimate the heating- and coolinginduced sensitivity to temperature across 300 transmission zones and 16 seasonal and diurnal time periods. The estimated load sensitivities can be coupled with climate scenarios to quantify the potential impact of climate change on load, with a primary application being long-term electricity scenarios. The method allows regional and seasonal differences in climate and load response to be reflected in the electricity scenarios. While the immediate product of this analysis was designed to mesh with the spatial and temporal resolution of a specific electricity model to enable climate change scenarios and analysis with that model, we also propose that the process could be applied for other models and purposes.