A versatile method for groundwater vulnerability projections in future scenarios

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

卷:187

Article

Stevenazzi, Stefania¹  Bonfanti, Marianna¹  Masetti, Marco¹  Nghiem, Son V.²  Sorichetta, Alessandro^3,4 

[1] Univ Milan, Dipartimento Sci Terra A Desio, Via Luigi Mangiagalli 34, I-20133 Milan, Italy

[2] CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, 4800 Oak Grove Dr,MS 300-235, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA

[3] Univ Southampton, Geog & Environm, Highfield Campus,Bldg 54, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England

[4] Flowminder Fdn, Roslagsgatan 17, SE-11355 Stockholm, Sweden

关键词: Groundwater vulnerability;    Time dimension;    Statistical method;    Land use management;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.10.057

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Water scarcity and associated risks are serious societal problems. A major challenge for the future will be to ensure the short-term and long-term provision of accessible and safe freshwater to meet the needs of the rapidly growing human population and changes in land cover and land use, where conservation and protection play a key role. Through a Bayesian spatial statistical method, a time-dependent approach for groundwater vulnerability assessment is developed to account for both the recent status of groundwater contamination and its evolution, as required by the European Union (Groundwater Directive, 2006/118/EC). This approach combines natural and anthropogenic factors to identify areas with a critical combination of high levels and increasing trends of nitrate concentrations, together with a quantitative evaluation of how different future scenarios would impact the quality of groundwater resources in a given area. In particular, the proposed approach can determine potential impacts on groundwater resources if policies are maintained at the status quo or if new measures are implemented for safeguarding groundwater quality, as natural factors are changing under climatic or anthropogenic stresses. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free