Carbon emissions embodied in China-Australia trade: A scenario analysis based on input-output analysis and panel regression models

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

卷:220

Article

Wang, Song¹  Zhao, Yuhuan^1,2  Wiedmann, Thomas³ 

[1] Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

[2] Beijing Inst Technol, Sustainable Dev Res Inst Econ & Soc Beijing, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

[3] UNSW Sydney, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, SAP, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia

关键词: Carbon emissions embodied in trade;    China-Australia trade;    Scenario analysis;    Input-output analysis;    Panel regression model;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.071

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Understanding carbon emissions embodied in trade is an important prerequisite for the effective formulation of climate mitigation policies. Based on input output analysis and panel regression models, this study proposes a multi-step forecasting procedure to simulate carbon emissions embodied in bilateral trade. We calculate carbon emissions embodied in the trade between China and Australia during 2000-2014 and forecast the same for the period 2015-2022 under four different development scenarios. The results show that, during 2000-2014, net carbon outflow from China to Australia increased from 2.2 to 15.5 Mt CO2, concentrated in textile and heavy manufacturing sectors. The simulation results show that, the forecasts of R&D focus and GDP focus scenarios constitute the lower and upper bounds of embodied emissions, and the latter is more than two times of the former in 2022 both for embodied emissions in Australia's exports and China's exports. Finally, conclusions are drawn and policy implications are discussed. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free