Analysis of socio-economic driving forces of cultivated land area and its forecast in the upstream of Han River of China

2018 International Conference on Civil and Hydraulic Engineering

土木建筑工程;水利工程

Wei, Xiu^1 ; Liu, Dengfeng^1,2 ; Liu, Hui^3 ; Li, Mingliang^4 ; Lin, Mu^5 ; Huang, Qiang^1

State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi'An University of Technology, Xi'an

710048, China^1

Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman

MT

59717, United States^2

China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, A1 Fuxing Road, Beijing

100038, China^3

General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing

100081, China^4

School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing

100081, China^5

关键词: Cultivated lands;    Land-use change;    Related factors;    Relativity-analysis;    Scenario analysis;    Socio-economic factor;    Socio-economics;    Stepwise regression analysis;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/189/5/052037/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/189/5/052037

学科分类：土木及结构工程学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In recent years, the human driving force of changes in cultivated land area is one of the hotspots in land-use change research. The paper took the Han River in southern Shaanxi of china as study area, and thirteen socio-economic indexes, such as total population, urbanization rate of domicile, per capita GDP during 1995-2015 years, were selected. The main socio-economic factors that affected the change of cultivated land area were sifted by grey relativity analysis, principal component analysis, stepwise regression analysis and STRIPAT model. Meanwhile, the change trend of cultivated land in the next 10 years was predicted by scenario analysis. The results show that, among many related factors, the increase of the proportion of the second industry and the proportion of the third industry can lead to the reduction of cultivated land area with different degree, and the increase of urbanization rate of domicile can induce the increases of cultivated land area. Meanwhile, the increase of cultivated land area is fastest among 8 scenarios when urbanization rate of domicile keeps high speed of growth rate, and the proportion of the second industry and the third industry keep low-speed growth rate.