Coupling the two-level programming and copula for optimizing energy-water nexus system management - A case study of Henan Province

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

卷:586

Article

Yu, L.^1,2,3  Li, Q. W.¹  Jin, S. W.⁴  Chen, C.⁵  Li, Y. P.⁶  Fan, Y. R.⁷  Zuo, Q. T.¹ 

[1] Zhengzhou Univ, Sch Water Conservancy Engn, Zhengzhou 450001, Peoples R China

[2] Zhengzhou Key Lab Water Resource & Environm, Zhengzhou 450001, Peoples R China

[3] Zhengzhou Univ, Yellow River Inst Ecol Protect & Reg Coordinated, Zhengzhou 450001, Peoples R China

[4] Civil Aviat Univ China, Gen Aviat Coll, Tianjin 300300, Peoples R China

[5] Univ Sci & Technol Beijing, Donlinks Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

[6] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[7] Brunel Univ London, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, Middx, England

关键词: Copula;    Energy-water nexus system;    Planning;    Risk interactions;    Two-level programming;    Uncertainty;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124832

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

The management of water resources system and energy system belongs to different decision-making departments, and there is a certain hierarchical relationship between them. Optimizing the configuration of regional-scale water and energy systems from a global perspective, and considering the correlations between water resources shortage risk and energy shortage risk as well as their joint-risk interaction, can improve the accuracy and efficiency of management decisions. This study aims to propose a copula-based interval two-level programming (CITP) method by integrating a copula-based interval stochastic programming (CISP) method and two-level programming (TP) method. CITP cannot only balance the goals and preferences among different decision-making levels but also analyze the risk interactions between water resources availability and electricity demand. The CITP method is then applied to planning the energy-water nexus system (EWNS) of Henan Province (China), where various decision-making levels and diverse risk-interaction scenarios are analyzed. Results reveal that: during the planning horizon, a) the total electricity-generation amounts can change by 7.31 x 10(3) GWh from S1 to S5; b) the future electricity-supply structure will toward a more sustainable aspect, and the electricity generated from gas-fired, hydro and wind power can increase by 6.2 x 10(3) GWh, 3.7 x 10(3) GWh and 5.8 x 10(3) GWh, respectively. Results can provide decision supports for the coordinated development of regional-scale EWNS management among water, energy, economy and society as well as environment.

【 授权许可】

Free