Climate change effects on wildfire hazards in the wildland-Urban-interface - Blue pine forests of Bhutan

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

卷:461

Article

Vila-Vilardell, Lena^1,2  Keeton, William S.^2,3  Thom, Dominik^2,3  Gyeltshen, Choki⁴  Tshering, Kaka⁵  Gratzer, Georg¹ 

[1] Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci BOKU, Inst Forest Ecol, Peter Jordan Str 82, A-1190 Vienna, Austria

[2] Univ Vermont, Rubenstein Sch Environm & Nat Resources, 308 Aiken Ctr, Burlington, VT 05405 USA

[3] Univ Vermont, Gund Inst Environm, 210 Colchester Ave, Burlington, VT 05405 USA

[4] Minist Agr & Forests, Natl Biodivers Ctr, Serbithang 11001, Thimphu, Bhutan

[5] UWICER, Lamai Goempa, Bumthang, Bhutan

关键词: Forest fire;    Blue pine;    Pinus wallichiana;    Fire hazards;    Fire behavior;    Wildfire simulation;    FlamMap;    Rural livelihoods;    Climate change;    Adaptive management;    Bhutan;    Himalayas;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.foreco.2020.117927

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Increased wildfire activity in the Himalayan Mountains due tO'climate change may Place iural livelihoods at risk, yet potential climate change effects on forest fires in this regiori'are poorly investigated. Here we use Bhutan's blue pine (Pinus wallichiana) ecosystems to study the sensitivity of fire behavior to climatic changes. Wildland fires are one of the biggest threats to forest resources in Bhutan; blue pine ecosystems, in particular, are of high concern because of their importance for rural livelihoods and relatively high frequency of forest fires. Due to the geographical and socioeconomic characteristics of Bhutan, the region is highly sensitive to climate change. We investigated fire hazards in the wildland-urban-interface (WUI) of two valleys in Bhutan (Thimphu and Jakar), where human settlements and infrastructure are surrounded by blue pine forests. We applied FlamMap, a spatially-explicit wildfire simulation model, to simulate fire behavior under four climate scenarios. As indicators of fire behavior, we used flame length, rate of spread, crown fire activity, burn probability, and fire size. With the simulation outcomes we constructed a fire hazard map showing the hotspots of forest fire susceptibility. FlamMap predicts a two-fold increase in fire hazards in the WUI for both study areas owing to climatic changes. The capital city of Thimphu has on average, greater fire hazards than Jakar though fire hazards are spatially variable within both study areas. Our study contributes to the understanding Of and ability to predict forest fire hazards in Himalayan blue pine ecosystems. The findings will help to more precisely allocate fire management resources in the WUI, plan suburban development to minimize fire risk to livelihoods, and adapt forest management in the face of climate change.

【 授权许可】

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