Association between COVID-19 cases and international equity indices

PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA

卷:417

Article

James, Nick¹  Menzies, Max² 

[1] Univ Sydney, Sch Math & Stat, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[2] Tsinghua Univ, Yau Math Sci Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China

关键词: COVID-19;    Time series analysis;    Nonlinear dynamics;    Market dynamics;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.physd.2020.132809

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the populations and equity markets of 92 countries. We compare country-by-country equity market dynamics to cumulative COVID-19 case and death counts and new case trajectories. First, we examine the multivariate time series of cumulative cases and deaths, particularly regarding their changing structure over time. We reveal similarities between the case and death time series, and key dates that the structure of the time series changed. Next, we classify new case time series, demonstrate five characteristic classes of trajectories, and quantify discrepancy between them with respect to the behavior of waves of the disease. Finally, we show there is no relationship between countries' equity market performance and their success in managing COVID-19. Each country's equity index has been unresponsive to the domestic or global state of the pandemic. Instead, these indices have been highly uniform, with most movement in March. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free