Trends in COVID-19 prevalence and mortality: A year in review

PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA

卷:425

Review

James, Nick¹  Menzies, Max² 

[1] Univ Melbourne, Sch Math & Stat, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[2] Tsinghua Univ, Yau Math Sci Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China

关键词: COVID-19;    Time series analysis;    Population dynamics;    Nonlinear dynamics;    Epidemiology;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.physd.2021.132968

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

This paper introduces new methods to study the changing dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths among the 50 worst-affected countries throughout 2020. First, we analyse the trajectories and turning points of rolling mortality rates to understand at which times the disease was most lethal. We demonstrate five characteristic classes of mortality rate trajectories and determine structural similarity in mortality trends over time. Next, we introduce a class of virulence matrices to study the evolution of COVID-19 cases and deaths on a global scale. Finally, we introduce three-way inconsistency analysis to determine anomalous countries with respect to three attributes: countries' COVID-19 cases, deaths and human development indices. We demonstrate the most anomalous countries across these three measures are Pakistan, the United States and the United Arab Emirates. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free