Directional-seasonal extreme value analysis of North Sea storm conditions

OCEAN ENGINEERING

卷:195

Article

Hansen, Hans Fabricius^1,2  Randell, David³  Zeeberg, Allan Rod⁴  Jonathan, Philip^5,6 

[1] DHI Ports & Offshore Technol, DK-2970 Horsholm, Denmark

[2] HAW MetOcean ApS, DK-1860 Frederiksberg C, Denmark

[3] Shell Global Solut Int BV, NL-1031 HW Amsterdam, Netherlands

[4] Total E&P Danmark AS, Britanniavej 10, DK-6705 Esbjerg, Denmark

[5] Shell Res Ltd, London SE1 7NA, England

[6] Univ Lancaster, Dept Math & Stat, Lancaster LA1 4YW, England

关键词: Offshore design;    Extremes;    Non-stationary;    Conditional extremes;    Bayesian;    Uncertainty;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106665

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Design and re-analysis of offshore structures requires the joint estimation of extreme values for a set of environmental variables, representing so-called long-term and short-term characteristics of the environment, subject to sources of systematic variation including directionality and seasonality. Estimation is complicated by numerous sources of uncertainty, typically including limited sample size and the specification of a number of analysis parameters (such as thresholds for peaks over threshold analysis). In this work, we present a model to estimate joint extremal characteristics of the ocean environment incorporating non-stationary marginal and conditional extreme value analysis, and thorough uncertainty quantification, within a Bayesian framework. The model is used to quantify the joint directional-seasonal structure of extremes waves, winds and currents at a location in the Danish sector of the North Sea.

【 授权许可】

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