Risk management model of winter navigation operations

MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN

卷:108

Article

Banda, Osiris A. Valdez¹  Goerlandt, Floris¹  Kuzmin, Vladimir²  Kujala, Pentti¹  Montewka, Jakub^1,3,4 

[1] Aalto Univ, Dept Mech Engn Marine Technol, Res Grp Maritime Risk & Safety, Kotka Maritime Res Ctr, Heikinkatu 7, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland

[2] Admiral Makarov State Univ Maritime & Inland Ship, Makarov Training Ctr, POB 22, St Petersburg 195112, Russia

[3] Finnish Geospatial Res Inst, Geodeetinrinne 2, Masala 02430, Finland

[4] Gdynia Maritime Univ, Fac Nav, Dept Transport & Logist, PL-81225 Gdynia, Poland

关键词: Maritime safety;    Maritime risk management;    Formal Safety Assessment;    Winter navigation operations;    Accidental oil spill;    Bayesian networks;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.03.071

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

【 授权许可】

Free