A Bayesian Network risk model for assessing oil spill recovery effectiveness in the ice-covered Northern Baltic Sea

MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN

卷:139

Article

Lu, Liangliang¹  Goerlandt, Floris^1,2  Banda, Osiris A. Valdez¹  Kujala, Pentti¹  Hoglund, Anders³  Arneborg, Lars³ 

[1] Aalto Univ, Sch Engn, Dept Mech Engn, Marine Technol,Res Grp Maritime Risk & Safety, POB 15300, Aalto 00076, Finland

[2] Dalhousie Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada

[3] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Res Dept, Norrkoping, Sweden

关键词: Risk analysis;    Oil spill;    Recovery effectiveness;    Sea ice;    Maritime safety;    Marine pollution;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.12.018

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

The Northern Baltic Sea, as one of the few areas with busy ship traffic in ice-covered waters, is a typical sea area exposed to risk of ship accidents and oil spills in ice conditions. Therefore, oil spill capability for response and recovery in this area is required to reduce potential oil spill effects. Currently, there are no integrated, scenario based models for oil spill response and recovery in ice conditions. This paper presents a Bayesian Network (BN) model for assessing oil spill recovery effectiveness, focusing on mechanical recovery. It aims to generate holistic understanding and insights about the oil spill-to-recovery phase, and to estimate oil recovery effectiveness in representative winter conditions. A number of test scenarios are shown and compared to get insight into the impact resulting from different oil types, spill sizes and winter conditions. The strength of evidence of the model is assessed in line with the adopted risk perspective.

【 授权许可】

Free