A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - A case study for the Gulf of Finland

MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN

卷:76

Article

Montewka, Jakub¹  Weckstrom, Mia¹  Kujala, Pentti¹ 

[1] Aalto Univ, Sch Engn, Dept Appl Mech, Res Grp Maritime Risk & Safety, FI-00076 Espoo, Finland

关键词: Oil spill;    Clean-up costs;    The Gulf of Finland;    Maritime traffic;    Bayesian Belief Networks;    Risk analysis;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.marpolbul.2013.09.031

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA). (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free