Improved ECMWF forecasts of direct normal irradiance: A tool for better operational strategies in concentrating solar power plants

RENEWABLE ENERGY

卷:163

Article

Lopes, Francis M.^1,2  Conceicao, Ricardo^1,2,3  Silva, Hugo G.^1,4  Salgado, Rui^1,4  Collares-Pereira, Manuel^1,2 

[1] Univ Evora, Inst Earth Sci, Rua Romao Ramalho 59, P-7000671 Evora, Portugal

[2] Univ Evora, Casa Cordovil, IIFA, Renewable Energies Chair, Rua D Augusto Eduardo Nunes 7, P-7002651 Evora, Portugal

[3] IMDEA Energy, High Temp Proc Unit, Avda Ramon Sagra 3, Madrid 28935, Spain

[4] Univ Evora, Sch Sci & Technol, Dept Phys, Rua Romao Ramalho 59, P-7000671 Evora, Portugal

关键词: ECMWF;    Direct normal irradiance;    Short-term forecasting;    Model output statistics;    Concentrating solar power operation;    Energy production simulations;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.renene.2020.08.140

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

To contribute for improved operational strategies of concentrating solar power plants with accurate forecasts of direct normal irradiance, this work describes the use of several post-processing methods on numerical weather prediction. Focus is given to a multivariate regression model that uses measured irradiance values from previous hours to improve next-hour predictions, which can be used to refine daily strategies based on day-ahead predictions. Short-term forecasts provided by the Integrated Forecasting System, the global model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are used together with measurements in southern Portugal. As a nowcasting tool, the proposed regression model significantly improves hourly predictions with a skill score of approximate to 0.84 (i.e. an increase of approximate to 27.29% towards the original hourly forecasts). Using previous-day measured availability to improve next-day forecasts, the model shows a skill score of approximate to 0.78 (i.e. an increase of approximate to 6% towards the original forecasts), being further improved if larger sets of data are used. Through a power plant simulator (i.e. the System Advisor Model), a preliminary economic analysis shows that using improved hourly predictions of electrical energy allows to enhance a power plant's profit in approximate to 0.44 M(sic)/year, as compared with the original forecasts. Operational strategies are proposed accordingly. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free