Features of formation of local strong squalls in Perm region

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems: ENVIROMIS-2018

生态环境科学;计算机科学

Kalinin, N.A.^1 ; Bykov, A.V.^1 ; Pischalnikova, E.V.^1 ; Shikhov, A.N.^2

Department of Meteorology and Atmosphere Protection, Perm State University, 15 Bukireva Street, Perm

614990, Russia^1

Department of Cartography and Geoinformatics, Perm State University, 15 Bukireva Street, Perm

614990, Russia^2

关键词: Environmental Monitoring;    Instability index;    Mesoscale Convective System;    Short-term forecasting;    Spatial positions;    Spatial resolution;    Thermodynamic instability;    Underlying surface;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/211/1/012059/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/211/1/012059

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This paper describes conditions of formation of three strong (≥ 25 m/s) squalls events which were observed in Perm region in 2015-2016. All these storm events have not been predicted by the Perm Center of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. The synoptic-scale conditions of squall formation were very diverse, and one event occurred with non-typical synoptic environments. Some features of the underlying surface increased the wind speed. CFS and GFS reanalysis data are used to calculate the squall-forecasting instability indices. We have found that the SWEAT index, which takes into account thermodynamic instability, wind shear, and wind speed in the middle troposphere, is the most reliable predictor for short-term forecasting of these squall events. The WRF model with 3 and 7.2 km spatial resolution is used for an explicit simulation of squall-generated mesoscale convective systems and wind gusts. The model underestimates the wind gusts or does not reproduce the squalls. Also, the spatial position and timing of a squall have been simulated with significant biases.