Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia

RENEWABLE ENERGY

卷:75

Article

Santos, J. A.¹  Rochinha, C.¹  Liberato, M. L. R.^2,3  Reyers, M.⁴  Pinto, J. G.^4,5 

[1] Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro UTAD, CITAB, Ctr Res & Technol Agroenvironm & Biol Sci, Dept Phys, P-5000801 Vila Real, Portugal

[2] Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, Inst Dom Luiz, P-1749016 Lisbon, Portugal

[3] Univ Tras Os Montes & Alto Douro UTAD, Dept Engn, P-5000801 Vila Real, Portugal

[4] Univ Cologne, Inst Geophys & Meteorol, Cologne, Germany

[5] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England

关键词: Wind energy potential;    Renewable energy;    Iberian Peninsula;    Wind turbine;    Future climate projections;    COSMO-CLM;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day(-1)), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucia reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (<15% of mean output), but exacerbated in winter (40%). Climate change projections show significant decreases over most of Iberia (<2 MWh day(-1)). The strong enhancement of autumn potentials in Southern Andalucia is noteworthy (>2 MWh day(-1)). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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