Prospective prediction of PTSD and depressive symptoms during social unrest and COVID-19 using a brief online tool

PSYCHIATRY RESEARCH

卷:298

Article

Wong, Stephanie M. Y.¹  Hui, Christy L. M.¹  Wong, Corine S. M.¹  Suen, Y. N.¹  Chan, Sherry K. W.^1,2  Lee, Edwin H. M.¹  Chang, W. C.^1,2  Chen, Eric Y. H.¹ 

[1] Univ Hong Kong, LKS Fac Med, Dept Psychiat, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Hong Kong, State Key Lab Brain & Cognit Sci, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

关键词: PTSD symptoms;    Depressive symptoms;    Trauma exposure;    COVID-19;    Mass screening;    Risk assessment;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.psychres.2021.113773

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Large-scale protracted population stressors, such as social unrest and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), are associated with increased symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Cost-effective mental health screening is prerequisite for timely intervention. We developed an online tool to identify prospective predictors of PTSD and depressive symptoms in the context of co-occurring social unrest and COVID-19 in Hong Kong. 150 participants completed baseline and follow-up assessments, with a median duration of 29 days. Three logistic regression models were constructed to assess its discriminative power in predicting PTSD and depressive symptoms at one month. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was performed for each model to determine their optimal decision thresholds. Sensitivity and specificity of the models were 87.1% and 53.8% for probable PTSD, 77.5% and 63.3% for high-risk depressive symptoms, and 44.7% and 96.4% for no significant depressive symptoms. The models performed well in discriminating outcomes (AUCs range: 0.769?0.811). Probable PTSD was predicted by social unrest-related traumatic events, high rumination, and low resilience. Rumination and resilience also predicted high-risk and no significant depressive symptoms, with COVID-19related events also predicting no significant depression risk. Accessible screening of probable mental health outcomes with good predictive capability may be important for early intervention opportunities.

【 授权许可】

Free