Epidemics with general generation interval distributions

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:262

Article

Miller, Joel C.^1,2,3  Davoudi, Bahman³  Meza, Rafael³  Slim, Anja C.⁵  Pourbohloul, Babak^3,4 

[1] NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[2] Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[3] British Columbia Ctr Dis Control, Div Math Modeling, Vancouver, BC, Canada

[4] Univ British Columbia, Sch Populat & Publ Hlth, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada

[5] Harvard Univ, Sch Engn & Appl Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

关键词: Epidemic;    Generation interval;    Stochastic growth;    Deterministic growth;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.08.007

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her age of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic effects dominate and show that epidemics tend to happen faster than deterministic calculations predict. If an outbreak is sufficiently large, stochastic effects are negligible and we modify the standard ordinary differential equation (ODE) model to accommodate age-of-infection effects. We avoid the use of partial differential equations which typically appear in related models. We introduce a memoryless ODE system which approximates the true solutions. Finally, we analyze the transition from the stochastic to the deterministic phase. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

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