Mechanistic modelling of the large-scale Lassa fever epidemics in Nigeria from 2016 to 2019

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:493

Article

Musa, Salihu S.^1,2  Zhao, Shi^3,4,5  Gao, Daozhou⁶  Lin, Qianying^1,7  Chowell, Gerardo^8,9  He, Daihai¹ 

[1] Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Dept Appl Math, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[2] Kano Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Wudil, Nigeria

[3] Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Sch Nursing, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[4] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, JC Sch Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[5] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Shenzhen Res Inst, Shenzhen, Peoples R China

[6] Shanghai Normal Univ, Math & Sci Coll, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[7] Univ Michigan, Michigan Inst Data Sci, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

[8] Georgia State Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA

[9] NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bldg 10, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

关键词: Lassa fever;    Mechanistic modelling;    Stability analysis;    Data fitting;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110209

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Lassa fever, also known as Lassa hemorrhagic fever, is a virus that has generated recurrent outbreaks in West Africa. We use mechanistic modelling to study the Lassa fever epidemics in Nigeria from 2016-19. Our model describes the interaction between human and rodent populations with the consideration of quarantine, isolation and hospitalization processes. Our model supports the phenomenon of forward bifurcation where the stability between disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium exchanges. Moreover, our model captures well the incidence curves from surveillance data. In particular, our model is able to reconstruct the periodic rodent and human forces of infection. Furthermore, we suggest that the three major epidemics from 2016-19 can be modelled by properly characterizing the rodent (or human) force of infection while the estimated human force of infection also present similar patterns across outbreaks. Our results suggest that the initial susceptibility likely increased across the three outbreaks from 2016-19. Our results highlight the similarity of the transmission dynamics driving three major Lassa fever outbreaks in the endemic areas. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

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