Conditions for eradicating hepatitis C in people who inject drugs: A fibrosis aware model of hepatitis C virus transmission

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY

卷:395

Article

Rozada, Ignacio¹  Coombs, Daniel^2,3  Lima, Viviane D.^1,4 

[1] St Pauls Hosp, British Columbia Ctr Excellence HIV AIDS, Vancouver, BC V6Z 1Y6, Canada

[2] Univ British Columbia, Dept Math, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada

[3] Univ British Columbia, Inst Appl Math, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada

[4] Univ British Columbia, Dept Med, Fac Med, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada

关键词: HCV;    Mathematical model;    Basic reproduction number;    Stability;    Fibrosis;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.01.030

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

It is estimated that 80% of new hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections occur among people who inject drugs (PWID). Eradicating HCV from this population is key for the complete eradication of the disease, and the advent of simple to use, high efficacy treatments could conceivably make this scenario possible. This paper presents a mathematical model where transmission of HCV is studied in a simulated population of PWID where fibrosis progression is explicitly tracked. The stability thresholds that determine whether HCV will remain endemic or become eradicated were established numerically, and analytically on a reduced version of the model. Conditions on testing and treatment rates for eradication to occur were determined, within the context of the new high efficacy therapies. The results show that HCV eradication in the PWID population of the Vancouver, BC test scenario is achievable, but testing and especially treatment rates will need to increase significantly from current rates. Parameter estimates were drawn from published data. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free