Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November–December 2017

PeerJ

article

Ryota Matsuyama¹  Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov¹  Akira Endo¹  Hyojung Lee¹  Takayuki Yamaguchi¹  Shinya Tsuzuki¹  Hiroshi Nishiura¹ 

[1]Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University

[2]Japan Science and Technology Agency, Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology

[3]London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, University of London

关键词: Corynebacterium diphtheriae;    Diphtheria;    Epidemiology;    Outbreak;    Basic reproduction number;    Bangladesh;    Refugee;    Vaccination;    Mathematical model;    Statistical estimation;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.4583

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

Background A Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh experienced a large-scale diphtheria epidemic in 2017. The background information of previously immune fraction among refugees cannot be explicitly estimated, and thus we conducted an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number, R0. Methods A renewal process model was devised to estimate the R0 and ascertainment rate of cases, and loss of susceptible individuals was modeled as one minus the sum of initially immune fraction and the fraction naturally infected during the epidemic. To account for the uncertainty of initially immune fraction, we employed a Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) method. Results R0 ranged from 4.7 to 14.8 with the median estimate at 7.2. R0 was positively correlated with ascertainment rates. Sensitivity analysis indicated that R0 would become smaller with greater variance of the generation time. Discussion Estimated R0 was broadly consistent with published estimate from endemic data, indicating that the vaccination coverage of 86% has to be satisfied to prevent the epidemic by means of mass vaccination. LHS was particularly useful in the setting of a refugee camp in which the background health status is poorly quantified.

【 授权许可】

CC BY