Malaria mortality characterization and the relationship between malaria mortality and climate in Chimoio, Mozambique

Malaria Journal

Research

Sara Zacarias¹  João Luís Ferrão²  Marco Painho³  Jorge M. Mendes³ 

[1] Direccao Provincial de Saúde de Manica, Lisbon, Mozambique;Faculdade de Engenharia, Universidade Católica de Moçambique, Chimoio, Mozambique;NOVA Information Management School, NOVA University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal;

关键词: Malaria mortality;    Seasonality;    Spatiality;    Chimoio;    Precision Public Health;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12936-017-1866-0

 received in 2016-10-23, accepted in 2017-05-15,  发布年份 2017

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe United Nation’s sustainable development goal for 2030 is to eradicate the global malaria epidemic, primarily as the disease continues to be one of the major concerns for public health in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, the region accounted for 90% of malaria deaths. Mozambique recorded a malaria mortality rate of 42.75 (per 100,000). In Chimoio, Mozambique’s fifth largest city, malaria is the fourth leading cause of death (9.4%). Few data on malaria mortality exists in Mozambique, particularly in relation to Chimoio. The objective of this study was to characterize malaria mortality trends and its spatial distribution in Chimoio.MethodsMalaria mortality data and climate data were extracted from the Chimoio Civil Registration records, and the Regional Weather station, from 2010 to 2014. The malaria crude mortality rate was calculated. ANOVA, Tukey’s, Chi square, and time series were carried out and an intervention analysis ARIMA model developed.ResultsA total of 944 malaria death cases were registered in Chimoio, 729 of these among Chimoio residents (77%). The average malaria mortality by gender was 44.9% for females and 55.1% for males. The age of death varied from 0 to 96 years, with an average age of 25.9 (SE = 0.79) years old. January presented the highest average of malaria deaths, and urban areas presented a lower crude malaria mortality rate. Rural neighbourhoods with good accessibility present the highest malaria crude mortality rate, over 85 per 100,000. Seasonal ARMA (2,0)(1,0)12 fitted the data although it was not able to capture malaria mortality peaks occurring during malaria outbreaks. Intervention effect properly fit the mortality peaks and reduced ARMA’s root mean square error by almost 25%.ConclusionMalaria mortality is increasing in Chimoio; children between 1 and 4 years old represent 13% of Chimoio population, but account for 25% of malaria mortality. Malaria mortality shows seasonal and spatial characteristics. More studies should be carried out for malaria eradication in the municipality.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2017

【 图 表 】

40170_2023_319_Article_IEq3.gif

Fig. 2

Fig. 7

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 6

Fig. 3

12936_2017_1866_Article_IEq9.gif

13690_2023_1196_Figa_HTML.png

12951_2015_155_Article_IEq33.gif

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 5

42004_2023_1020_Article_IEq18.gif

12951_2017_315_Article_IEq2.gif