Effects of apparent temperature on daily mortality in Lisbon and Oporto, Portugal

Environmental Health

Research

José Calheiros¹  Sofia P Almeida²  Elsa Casimiro³ 

[1] Centro de Investigação em Ciências da Saúde, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Beira Interior, Portugal;Centro de Investigação em Ciências da Saúde, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Beira Interior, Portugal;Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation Research Group (CC-IAM), Faculty of Science, University of Lisbon, Portugal;Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation Research Group (CC-IAM), Faculty of Science, University of Lisbon, Portugal;INFOTOX - Environmental Health Consultants, Lisbon, Portugal;

关键词: Daily Mortality;    Heat Exposure;    Apparent Temperature;    Respiratory Mortality;    Generalize Additive Model Model;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1476-069X-9-12

 received in 2009-08-20, accepted in 2010-03-10,  发布年份 2010

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundEvidence that elevated temperatures can lead to increased mortality is well documented, with population vulnerability being location specific. However, very few studies have been conducted that assess the effects of temperature on daily mortality in urban areas in Portugal.MethodsIn this paper time-series analysis was used to model the relationship between mean apparent temperature and daily mortality during the warm season (April to September) in the two largest urban areas in Portugal: Lisbon and Oporto. We used generalized additive Poisson regression models, adjusted for day of week and season.ResultsOur results show that in Lisbon, a 1°C increase in mean apparent temperature is associated with a 2.1% (95%CI: 1.6, 2.5), 2.4% (95%CI: 1.7, 3.1) and 1.7% (95%CI: 0.1, 3.4) increase in all-causes, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. In Oporto the increase was 1.5% (95%CI: 1.0, 1.9), 2.1% (95%CI: 1.3, 2.9) and 2.7% (95%CI: 1.2, 4.3) respectively. In both cities, this increase was greater for the group >65 years.ConclusionEven without extremes in apparent temperature, we observed an association between temperature and daily mortality in Portugal. Additional research is needed to allow for better assessment of vulnerability within populations in Portugal in order to develop more effective heat-related morbidity and mortality public health programs.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Almeida et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2010