Risk prediction of second primary malignancies in patients after rectal cancer: analysis based on SEER Program

BMC Gastroenterology

Research

Na Yao¹  Yu-Wen Jiao²  Jia-Wen Zhang²  Wei-Hai Shi²  Yue Fu²  Zi-Dan Zhao³  Yong-Chao Sun³ 

[1] Department of Breast Surgery, The Affiliated Wuxi Hospital of Nanjing University of TCM, Wuxi City Hospital of TCM, Wuxi, China;Department of General Surgery, The Affiliated Changzhou No. 2 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, 213003, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China;Graduate School of Bengbu Medical College, Anhui, China;Department of General Surgery, The Affiliated Changzhou No. 2 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, 213003, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China;

关键词: Seer;    Rectal cancer;    Second primary malignancy;    Nomogram;    Treatment decision;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12876-023-02974-2

 received in 2023-06-15, accepted in 2023-09-26,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThis study will focus on exploring the clinical characteristics of rectal cancer (RC) patients with Second Primary Malignancies (SPMs) and constructing a prognostic nomogram to provide clinical treatment decisions.MethodsWe determined the association between risk factors and overall survival (OS) while establishing a nomogram to forecast the further OS status of these patients via Cox regression analysis. Finally, we evaluated the performance of the prognostic nomogram to predict further OS status.ResultsNine parameters were identified to establish the prognostic nomogram in this study, and, the C-index of the training set and validation set was 0.691 (95%CI, 0.662–0.720) and 0.731 (95%CI, 0.676–0.786), respectively. The calibration curve showed a high agreement between the predicted and actual results, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves verified the superiority of our model for clinical usefulness. In addition, the nomogram classification could more precisely differentiate risk subgroups and improved the discrimination of SPMs’ prognosis.ConclusionsWe systematically explored the clinical characteristics of SPMs after RC and constructed a satisfactory nomogram.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2023

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