Future transport systems: long-term visions and socio-technical transitions

European Transport Research Review

Original Paper

Anu Tuominen¹  Heidi Auvinen¹ 

[1] VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, 02044, Espoo, VTT, Finland;

关键词: Transport system;    Foresight;    Vision;    Socio-technical change;   

DOI  :  10.1007/s12544-014-0135-3

 received in 2013-03-19, accepted in 2014-03-17,  发布年份 2014

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

Long-term, system-level foresight is needed when grand challenges are addressed in the transport sector. This paper explores how socio-technical transitions can be anticipated and taken into account in strategic transport planning. Techniques to integrate long-term foresight and understanding of socio-technical change in the transport system to support long-term transport policy targets are introduced. The proposed approach extends and combines transport system vision building to analysis of system-level changes on a three-level framework. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of socio-technical transitions. The case is demonstrated with a vision of a safe and secure Finnish transport system in 2100. First, a consistent transport system vision was created with transport experts and authorities using a structured vision building process. Second, key topics involved in the transition from the existing socio-technical system to the envisioned future were analysed using the three-level framework. The demonstration proved successful, and it has contributed to the understanding of importance of the shared long-term perspective in transport system decision-making and strategic planning. It has also generated wider discussion on transport system visions, desired futures paths as well as measures and changes required among the Finnish transport systems stakeholders.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
© The Author(s) 2014