2020 Vision Project Summary

Gordon, K.W. ; Scott, K.P.

Sandia National Laboratories

关键词: National Security;    Computers;    Economics;    China;    Vision;   

DOI  :  10.2172/768280
RP-ID  :  SAND2001-8040
RP-ID  :  AC04-94AL85000
RP-ID  :  768280

美国|英语

来源: UNT Digital Library

【 摘 要 】

Since the 2020 Vision project began in 1996, students from participating schools have completed and submitted a variety of scenarios describing potential world and regional conditions in the year 2020 and their possible effect on US national security. This report summarizes the students' views and describes trends observed over the course of the 2020 Vision project's five years. It also highlights the main organizational features of the project. An analysis of thematic trends among the scenarios showed interesting shifts in students' thinking, particularly in their views of computer technology, US relations with China, and globalization. In 1996, most students perceived computer technology as highly beneficial to society, but as the year 2000 approached, this technology was viewed with fear and suspicion, even personified as a malicious, uncontrollable being. Yet, after New Year's passed with little disruption, students generally again perceived computer technology as beneficial. Also in 1996, students tended to see US relations with China as potentially positive, with economic interaction proving favorable to both countries. By 2000, this view had transformed into a perception of China emerging as the US' main rival and ''enemy'' in the global geopolitical realm. Regarding globalization, students in the first two years of the project tended to perceive world events as dependent on US action. However, by the end of the project, they saw the US as having little control over world events and therefore, we Americans would need to cooperate and compromise with other nations in order to maintain our own well-being.