A comparison of five malaria transmission models: benchmark tests and implications for disease control

Malaria Journal

Research

Ben S Southworth¹  Jonathan W Chipman²  Xun Shi²  Dorothy I Wallace³  Andrew K Githeko⁴ 

[1] Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA;Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA;Department of Mathematics, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA;Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya;

关键词: Malaria;    Epidemiology;    Mathematical model;    Sensitivity analysis;    Disease control;    Entomological inoculation rate;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1475-2875-13-268

 received in 2014-02-05, accepted in 2014-06-27,  发布年份 2014

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundModels for malaria transmission are usually compared based on the quantities tracked, the form taken by each term in the equations, and the qualitative properties of the systems at equilibrium. Here five models are compared in detail in order to develop a set of performance measures that further illuminate the differences among models.MethodsFive models of malaria transmission are compared. Parameters are adjusted to correspond to similar biological quantities across models. Nine choices of parameter sets/initial conditions are tested for all five models. The relationship between malaria incidence in humans and (1) malaria incidence in vectors, (2) man-biting rate, and (3) entomological inoculation rate (EIR) at equilibrium is tested for all models. A sensitivity analysis for all models is conducted at all parameter sets. Overall sensitivities are ranked for each of the five models. A set of simple control interventions is tested on two of the models.ResultsFour of these models behave consistently over a set of nine choices of parameters and initial conditions, with one behaving significantly differently. Two of the models do not match reported entomological inoculation rate data well. The sensitivity profiles, although consistently having similar top parameters, vary not only between models but among choices of parameters and initial conditions. A numerical experiment on two of the models illustrates the effect of these differences on control strategies, showing significant differences between models in predicting which of the control measures are more effective.ConclusionsA set of benchmark tests based on performance measures are developed to be used on any proposed malaria transmission model to test its overall behaviour in comparison to both other models and data sets.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Wallace et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2014