Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

BMC Veterinary Research

Research Article

Ana de la Torre¹  María Jesús Muñoz¹  José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno²  Marta Martínez²  Fernando Sánchez-Vizcaíno²  Lina Mur²  Beatriz Martínez-López³  Bryony A Jones⁴  Dirk U Pfeiffer⁴  Solenne Costard⁵  Barbara Wieland⁶ 

[1] Research Centre in Animal Health, CISA/INIA, Carretera de Algete a El Casar s/n, 28130, Valdeolmos, Madrid, Spain;VISAVET Center and Animal Health Department, Veterinary School, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Avenida Puerta de Hierro s/n, 28040, Madrid, Spain;VISAVET Center and Animal Health Department, Veterinary School, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Avenida Puerta de Hierro s/n, 28040, Madrid, Spain;Center of Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance (CADMS), University of California, Davis, USA;Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics & Public Health Group, Royal Veterinary College, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, AL9 7TA, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, UK;Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics & Public Health Group, Royal Veterinary College, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, AL9 7TA, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, UK;EpiX Analytics, 1643 Spruce Street, 80302, Boulder, CO, USA;Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics & Public Health Group, Royal Veterinary College, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, AL9 7TA, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, UK;Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, Ulaanbataar, Mongolia;

关键词: African swine fever;    Emerging disease;    Introduction;    European Union;    Pigs;    Risk assessment;    Semi-quantitative framework;    Transboundary disease;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1746-6148-10-145

 received in 2013-11-21, accepted in 2014-06-24,  发布年份 2014

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway.ResultsThe framework’s results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar).ConclusionsThe modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model’s results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Mur et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2014