Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

BMC Veterinary Research

Barbara Wieland²  José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno⁵  Dirk U Pfeiffer⁶  María Jesús Muñoz⁴  Fernando Sánchez-Vizcaíno⁵  Marta Martínez⁵  Bryony A Jones⁶  Ana de la Torre⁴  Solenne Costard³  Beatriz Martínez-López¹  Lina Mur⁵ 

[1] Center of Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance (CADMS), University of California, Davis, USA;Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, Ulaanbataar, Mongolia;EpiX Analytics, 1643 Spruce Street, Boulder 80302, CO, USA;Research Centre in Animal Health, CISA/INIA, Carretera de Algete a El Casar s/n, 28130 Valdeolmos, Madrid, Spain;VISAVET Center and Animal Health Department, Veterinary School, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Avenida Puerta de Hierro s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain;Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics & Public Health Group, Royal Veterinary College, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield, Hertfordshire AL9 7TA, UK

关键词: Transboundary disease;    Semi-quantitative framework;    Risk assessment;    Pigs;    European Union;    Introduction;    Emerging disease;    African swine fever;   

Others  :  1119123
DOI  :  10.1186/1746-6148-10-145

 received in 2013-11-21, accepted in 2014-06-24,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

Background

The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway.

Results

The framework’s results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar).

Conclusions

The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model’s results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

【 授权许可】

   
2014 Mur et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

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