Nomogram for overall survival of Japanese patients with bone-metastatic prostate cancer

BMC Cancer

Research Article

Masataka Taguri¹  Satoshi Morita¹  Takeshi Miura²  Kazumi Noguchi³  Yasuhide Miyoshi³  Kiyoshi Fujinami³  Hiroji Uemura⁴  Masahiro Yanagisawa⁴  Ichiro Ikeda⁵  Kazuki Kobayashi⁶ 

[1] Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan;Department of Urology, Kanagawa Cancer Center, Yokohama, Japan;Department of Urology, Yokohama City University Medical Center, Yokohama, Japan;Department of Urology, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan;Department of Urology, Yokohama Minami Kyosai Hospital, Yokohama, Japan;Department of Urology, Yokosuka Kyosai Hospital, Yokosuka, Japan;

关键词: Prostate cancer;    Nomogram;    Prognostic tool;    Bone metastasis;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12885-015-1330-x

 received in 2014-06-23, accepted in 2015-04-21,  发布年份 2015

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundWe analyzed the relationship between prostate cancer outcomes and pretreatment clinical factors and developed a prognostic nomogram of overall survival (OS) of patients with bone metastasis.MethodsFrom 1993 to 2011, 463 consecutive patients were treated for bone-metastatic prostate cancer. Data sets from 361 patients were used to develop a nomogram (training data), and data sets of 102 patients were used for validation of the nomogram (validation data). Using the external validation data set, the nomogram was assessed for discriminatory ability, and the predictions were assessed for calibration accuracy by plotting actual survival against predicted risk.ResultsOf the 361 patients in the training data set, 205 (56.8%) patients died, 169 (46.8%) deaths of which were due to prostate cancer. The median follow-up period was 55.2 months. In the multivariate analysis, patient age, serum prostate-specific antigen level, clinical T stage, extent of disease on bone scan, and biopsy Gleason sum were independent prognostic factors. We developed a prognostic model comprising these five factors for patients with bone-metastatic prostate cancer. This nomogram can be used to estimate 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival probability. External validation of this model using 102 validation data sets showed reasonable accuracy (concordance index, 0.719).ConclusionOur pretreatment prognostic nomogram might be useful for Japanese patients with bone-metastatic prostate cancer.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Miyoshi et al.; licensee BioMed Central. 2015