Age, gender and disability predict future disability in older people: the Rotterdam Study

BMC Geriatrics

Research Article

Albert Hofman¹  Sita MA Bierma-Zeinstra²  Bart W Koes²  Ümit Taş²  Arianne P Verhagen²  Ewout W Steyerberg³ 

[1]Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Erasmus MC - University Medical Centre Rotterdam, P.O. Box 2040, 3000, Rotterdam, CA, The Netherlands

[2]Department of General Practice, Erasmus MC - University Medical Centre Rotterdam, P.O. Box 2040, 3000, Rotterdam, CA, The Netherlands

[3]Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC - University Medical Centre Rotterdam, P.O. Box 2040, 3000, Rotterdam, CA, The Netherlands

关键词: disability;    older people;    prediction model;    prospective cohort;   

DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2318-11-22

 received in 2010-08-19, accepted in 2011-05-10,  发布年份 2011

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundTo develop a prediction model that predicts disability in community-dwelling older people. Insight in the predictors of disability is needed to target preventive strategies for people at increased risk.MethodsData were obtained from the Rotterdam Study, including subjects of 55 years and over. Subjects who had complete data for sociodemographic factors, life style variables, health conditions, disability status at baseline and complete data for disability at follow-up were included in the analysis. Disability was expressed as a Disability Index (DI) measured with the Health Assessment Questionnaire.We used a multivariable polytomous logistic regression to derive a basic prediction model and an extended prediction model. Finally we developed readily applicable score charts for the calculation of outcome probabilities.ResultsOf the 5027 subjects included, 49% had no disability, 18% had mild disability, 16% had severe disability and 18% had deceased at follow-up after six years. The strongest predictors were age and prior disability. The contribution of other predictors was relatively small. The discriminative ability of the basic model was high; the extended model did not enhance predictive ability.ConclusionAs prior disability status predicts future disability status, interventive strategies should be aimed at preventing disability in the first place.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
© Taş et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2011. This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.