Predicting Project Outcomes : A Simple Methodology for Predictions Based on Project Ratings

Blanc, Marc ; Esmail, Talib ; Mascarell, Caroline ; Rodriguez, Rukshan

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: prediction model;    development achievement;    outcomes;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7800
RP-ID  :  WPS7800

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The downgrading of projects at theclosing from moderately satisfactory to moderatelyunsatisfactory has been a persistent problem in the WorldBank and a particular problem in the World Bank's EastAsia and Pacific region since 2012. Through analysis of theprojects that exited the East Asia and Pacific region'sportfolio in fiscal years 2012 and 2013, this paper derivesa prediction model based on ratings for implementationprogress and achievement of development objectives duringproject supervision. The model, used in combination withother indicators of project progress toward outcomes,appears to improve on existing methods for assessing thedowngrade risk.