A multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing malaria risk in northern South America

BMC Public Health

Research Article

Temitope O. Alimi¹  Socrates V. Herrera²  Myriam Arevalo-Herrera²  Douglas O. Fuller³  Justin B. Stoler⁴  John C. Beier⁵  Martha L. Quinones⁶ 

[1] Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA;Centro de Investigación Científica Caucaseco, Cali, Colombia;Faculty of Health, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia;Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA;Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA;Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA;Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA;Department of Public Health, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia;

关键词: Malaria;    Malaria risk;    Multi-criteria decision analysis;    Risk maps;    South America;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-016-2902-7

 received in 2015-08-28, accepted in 2016-02-22,  发布年份 2016

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundMalaria control in South America has vastly improved in the past decade, leading to a decrease in the malaria burden. Despite the progress, large parts of the continent continue to be at risk of malaria transmission, especially in northern South America. The objectives of this study were to assess the risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America using multi-criteria decision analysis.MethodsThe risk of malaria transmission and vector exposure in northern South America was assessed using multi-criteria decision analysis, in which expert opinions were taken on the key environmental and population risk factors.ResultsResults from our risk maps indicated areas of moderate-to-high risk along rivers in the Amazon basin, along the coasts of the Guianas, the Pacific coast of Colombia and northern Colombia, in parts of Peru and Bolivia and within the Brazilian Amazon. When validated with occurrence records for malaria, An. darlingi, An. albimanus and An. nuneztovari s.l., t-test results indicated that risk scores at occurrence locations were significantly higher (p < 0.0001) than a control group of geographically random points.ConclusionIn this study, we produced risk maps based on expert opinion on the spatial representation of risk of potential vector exposure and malaria transmission. The findings provide information to the public health decision maker/policy makers to give additional attention to the spatial planning of effective vector control measures. Therefore, as the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, prioritizing areas for interventions by using spatially accurate, high-resolution (1 km or less) risk maps may guide targeted control and help reduce the disease burden in the region.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Alimi et al. 2016