Russia-specific relative risks and their effects on the estimated alcohol-attributable burden of disease

BMC Public Health

Research Article

Kevin D. Shield¹  Jürgen Rehm² 

[1] Social and Epidemiological Research department, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), CAMH 33 Russell Street, Room T528, M5S 2S1, Toronto, ON, Canada;WHO/PAHO Collaborating Centre in Addiction and Mental Health, CAMH, Toronto, Canada;Institute of Medical Science (IMS), University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada;Social and Epidemiological Research department, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), CAMH 33 Russell Street, Room T528, M5S 2S1, Toronto, ON, Canada;WHO/PAHO Collaborating Centre in Addiction and Mental Health, CAMH, Toronto, Canada;Institute of Medical Science (IMS), University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada;Dalla Lana School of Public Health (DLSPH), University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada;Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, TU Dresden, Germany;Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada;

关键词: Alcohol;    Russia;    Eastern Europe;    Relative risk;    Risk factor;    Burden of disease;    Population-attributable fraction;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-015-1818-y

 received in 2014-08-15, accepted in 2015-05-05,  发布年份 2015

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundAlcohol consumption is a major risk factor for the burden of disease globally. This burden is estimated using Relative Risk (RR) functions for alcohol from meta-analyses that use data from all countries; however, for Russia and surrounding countries, country-specific risk data may need to be used. The objective of this paper is to compare the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using Russia-specific alcohol RRs with the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using alcohol RRs from meta-analyses.MethodsData for 2012 on drinking indicators were calculated based on the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Data for 2012 on mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost by cause were obtained by country from the World Health Organization. Alcohol Population-Attributable Fractions (PAFs) were calculated based on a risk modelling methodology from Russia. These PAFs were compared to PAFs calculated using methods applied for all other countries. The 95 % Uncertainty Intervals (UIs) for the alcohol PAFs were calculated using a Monte Carlo-like method.ResultsUsing Russia-specific alcohol RR functions, in Russia in 2012 alcohol caused an estimated 231,900 deaths (95 % UI: 185,600 to 278,200) (70,800 deaths among women and 161,100 deaths among men) and 13,295,000 DALYs lost (95 % UI: 11,242,000 to 15,348,000) (3,670,000 DALYs lost among women and 9,625,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age. This compares to an estimated 165,600 deaths (95 % UI: 97,200 to 228,100) (29,700 deaths among women and 135,900 deaths among men) and 10,623,000 DALYs lost (95 % UI: 7,265,000 to 13,754,000) (1,783,000 DALYs lost among women and 8,840,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age caused by alcohol when non-Russia-specific alcohol RRs were used.ConclusionsResults indicate that if the Russia-specific RRs are used when estimating the health burden attributable to alcohol consumption in Russia, then the total estimated burden will be more than if RRs from meta-analyses are used. Furthermore, additional research is needed to understand which aspects of the Russian style of drinking cause the most harm.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Shield and Rehm. 2015