Spatial-temporal detection of risk factors for bacillary dysentery in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, China

BMC Public Health

Research Article

Gexin Xiao¹  Chengdong Xu²  Jinfeng Wang²  Yuanyuan Li³ 

[1] China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing, China;State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;Chang’an University, Xi’an, China;

关键词: Bacillary dysentery;    Meteorological factors;    Socio-economic factors;    Spatial-temporal;    GeoDetector model;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-017-4762-1

 received in 2017-01-02, accepted in 2017-09-15,  发布年份 2017

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundBacillary dysentery is the third leading notifiable disease and remains a major public health concern in China. The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban region is the biggest urban agglomeration in northern China, and it is one of the areas in the country that is most heavily infected with bacillary dysentery. The objective of the study was to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern and to determine any contributory risk factors on the bacillary dysentery.MethodsBacillary dysentery case data from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 in Beijing–Tianjin– Hebei were employed. GeoDetector method was used to determine the impact of potential risk factors, and to identify regions and seasons at high risk of the disease.ResultsThere were 36,472 cases of bacillary dysentery in 2012 in the study region. The incidence of bacillary dysentery varies widely amongst different age groups; the higher incidence of bacillary dysentery mainly occurs in the population under the age of five. Bacillary dysentery presents apparent seasonal variance, with the highest incidence occurring from June to September. In terms of the potential meteorological risk factors, mean temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, mean wind speed and sunshine hours explain the time variant of bacillary dysentery at 83%, 31%, 25%, 17% and 13%, respectively. The interactive effect between temperature and humidity has an explanatory power of 87%, indicating that a hot and humid environment is more likely to lead to the occurrence of bacillary dysentery. Socio-economic factors affect the spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery. The top four factors are age group, per capita GDP, population density and rural population proportion, and their determinant powers are 61%, 27%, 25% and 21%, respectively. The interactive effect between age group and the other factors accounts for more than 60% of bacillary dysentery transmission.ConclusionsBacillary dysentery poses a higher risk in the population of children. It is affected by meteorological and socio-economic factors, and it is necessary to pay more attention to the meteorological period and situation, particularly in period with high temperature and humidity, as well as places in urban areas with high population density, and a low proportion of rural population.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s). 2017

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