Predictors and a novel predictive model for intravascular immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease

Italian Journal of Pediatrics

Research

Donghao Guo¹  Xiaohui Huang²  Junjie Wang³ 

[1] Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China;Department of Operating Room, Quanzhou Women’s and Children’s Hospital, Quanzhou, China;Department of Pediatric Endocrinology, Quanzhou Women’s and Children’s Hospital, Quanzhou, China;

关键词: Kawasaki disease;    Intravenous immunoglobulin resistance;    Prediction model;    Nomogram;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s13052-023-01531-7

 received in 2023-08-01, accepted in 2023-09-12,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundEarly identification of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance contributes to better management of Kawasaki disease (KD). This study aims to establish an effective prediction model for IVIG resistance in the Chinese population.MethodsA total of 658 eligible patients diagnosed with KD were enrolled in this study, with 461 in the training cohort and 197 in the validation cohort. The demographic characteristics and potential risk factors were compared between IVIG-responsive and resistant groups. Predictors were selected by the Akaike information criterion. The nomogram’s performance was evaluated by calibration curve, decision curve analysis, and operating characteristic curve.ResultsWhite blood cell counts (WBC), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (N/L ratio), hematocrit (HCT), albumin (ALB), total bilirubin (TBIL), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and creatinine (Cr) were detected as predictors of IVIG resistance. A predictive nomogram incorporating these predictors was constructed using the training cohort. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis showed good discrimination and calibration of the proposed nomogram in both training and validation sets, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) in both sets was 75.8% and 74.2%, respectively.ConclusionThis study identified WBC, N/L ratio, HCT, ALB, TBIL, LDH, and Cr as predictors for IVIG resistance in patients with KD. The proposed novel nomogram with a high level of accuracy and reliability may benefit clinical decision-making upon treatment initiation.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© Società Italiana di Pediatria 2023

【 图 表 】

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Fig. 4