Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralization

Frontiers in Energy Research

Energy Research

Mijndert Van der Spek¹  Phil Renforth¹  Till Strunge² 

[1] Research Centre for Carbon Solutions, School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom;Research Institute for Sustainability—Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (Formerly Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, IASS), Potsdam, Germany;Research Centre for Carbon Solutions, School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom;

关键词: uncertainty analysis;    techno-economic assessment;    carbon capture and utilization or;    storage;    CO mineralization;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fenrg.2023.1182969

 received in 2023-03-09, accepted in 2023-05-04,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

The pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 should be designed based on solid scientific evidence. Ex ante system analysis tools, such as techno-economic assessments (TEAs), are key instruments to guide decision-makers. As ex ante TEAs of CO2 mitigation technologies embody a high level of uncertainty, the informed use of uncertainty analysis becomes crucial for meaningful interpretation and communication of TEA outputs. To foster enhanced appreciation and the use of uncertainty analysis, we compare multiple uncertainty analysis methods for ex ante TEAs, using a case study on CO2 mineralization in the cement industry. We show that local sensitivity analysis tools such as one-way analysis, which are most often used by TEA practitioners, may not suffice for deriving reliable conclusions and provide guidance on how to apply global sensitivity analysis methods, such as variance-based indicators for TEAs in this field.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
Copyright © 2023 Strunge, Renforth and Van der Spek.