Nomogram for predicting the risk of preterm delivery after IVF/ICSI treatment: an analysis of 11513 singleton births

Frontiers in Endocrinology

Endocrinology

Youhua Lai¹  Chang Liu²  Xinyao Hu³  Jie Li³  Cong Sui³  Lei Cai³  Hanwang Zhang³  Kun Qian³  Zhiqi Liao³  Lin Shen³ 

[1] Gynaecology and Obstetrics, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of ZheJiang University School of Medicine, Yiwu, China;Reproductive Medicine Center, The Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical College, Nanjing, China;Reproductive Medicine Center, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China;

关键词: nomogram;    prediction;    preterm birth;    in vitro;    intracytoplasmic sperm injection;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fendo.2023.1065291

 received in 2022-10-09, accepted in 2023-05-01,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThere is a higher risk of preterm delivery (PTD) in singleton live births conceived after in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) compared with spontaneously conceived pregnancies. The objective of our study was to build a predictive nomogram model to suggest the possibility of PTD in singleton pregnancies after IVF/ICSI treatment.Method11513 IVF/ICSI cycles with singleton live births were enrolled retrospectively. These cycles were randomly allocated into a training group (80%) and a validation group (20%). We used the multivariate logistics regression analysis to determine prognostic factors for PTD in the training group. A nomogram based on the above factors was further established for predicting PTD. Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), areas under the ROC curves (AUC), concordance index (C-index), and calibration plots were analyzed for assessing the performance of this nomogram in the training and validation group.ResultsThere were fourteen risk factors significantly related to PTD in IVF/ICSI singleton live births, including maternal body mass index (BMI) > 24 kg/m2, smoking, uterine factors, cervical factors, ovulatory factors, double embryo transferred (DET), blastocyst transfer, FET, vanishing twin syndrome (VTS), obstetric complications (placenta previa, placenta abruption, hypertensive of pregnancies, and premature rupture of membrane), and a male fetus. These factors were further incorporated to construct a nomogram prediction model. The AUC, C-index, and calibration curves indicated that this nomogram exhibited fair performance and good calibration.ConclusionsWe found that the occurrence of PTD increased when women with obesity, smoking, uterine factors, cervical factors, ovulatory factors, DET, VTS, and obstetric complications, and a male fetus. Furthermore, a nomogram was constructed based on the above factors and it might have great value for clinic use.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
Copyright © 2023 Liao, Cai, Liu, Li, Hu, Lai, Shen, Sui, Zhang and Qian