El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans

Malaria Journal

Research

Aisha Owusu¹  Adugna Woyessa²  Tufa Dinku³  Asher Siebert³  Madeleine C. Thomson³  Rémi Cousin³ 

[1]College of Atmospheric and Geographical Sciences, Oklahoma University, Norman, OK, USA

[2]Ethiopian Public Health Institute, P.O. Box 1242/5654, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

[3]International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, PO Box 1000, 10964, Palisades, NY, USA

[4]International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, PO Box 1000, 10964, Palisades, NY, USA

关键词: Climate variability and change;    Adaptation;    Ethiopia;    Rainfall temperature ENSO;    ENACTS;    Malaria;    Epidemic;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3

 received in 2022-06-04, accepted in 2023-06-13,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundEthiopia has a history of climate related malaria epidemics. An improved understanding of malaria–climate interactions is needed to inform malaria control and national adaptation plans.MethodsMalaria–climate associations in Ethiopia were assessed using (a) monthly climate data (1981–2016) from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA), (b) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the eastern Pacific, Indian Ocean and Tropical Atlantic and (c) historical malaria epidemic information obtained from the literature. Data analysed spanned 1950–2016. Individual analyses were undertaken over relevant time periods. The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal and spatial patterns of rainfall and minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) was explored using NMA online Maprooms. The relationship of historic malaria epidemics (local or widespread) and concurrent ENSO phases (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) and climate conditions (including drought) was explored in various ways. The relationships between SSTs (ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and Tropical Atlantic), rainfall, Tmin, Tmax and malaria epidemics in Amhara region were also explored.ResultsEl Niño events are strongly related to higher Tmax across the country, drought in north-west Ethiopia during the July–August–September (JAS) rainy season and unusually heavy rain in the semi-arid south-east during the October–November–December (OND) season. La Niña conditions approximate the reverse. At the national level malaria epidemics mostly occur following the JAS rainy season and widespread epidemics are commonly associated with El Niño events when Tmax is high, and drought is common. In the Amhara region, malaria epidemics were not associated with ENSO, but with warm Tropical Atlantic SSTs and higher rainfall.ConclusionMalaria–climate relationships in Ethiopia are complex, unravelling them requires good climate and malaria data (as well as data on potential confounders) and an understanding of the regional and local climate system. The development of climate informed early warning systems must, therefore, target a specific region and season when predictability is high and where the climate drivers of malaria are sufficiently well understood. An El Niño event is likely in the coming years. Warming temperatures, political instability in some regions, and declining investments from international donors, implies an increasing risk of climate-related malaria epidemics.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2023

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