Construction and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the overall survival of colorectal cancer patients

BMC Surgery

Research

Yin Xu¹  Guo Ganlin²  Yu Bin²  Hu xuhua²  Liu Zining²  Guo Peiyuan²  Han Jiachao²  Wang Guiying³ 

[1] The Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University, NO.139, Ziqiang Road, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, PR China;The Second General Surgery, The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, NO.12, JianKang Road, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, PR China;The Second General Surgery, The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, NO.12, JianKang Road, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, PR China;The Department of General Surgery, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, No. 215, Heping West Road, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, PR China;

关键词: Colorectal cancer;    Overall survival;    Nomogram;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12893-023-02018-2

 received in 2022-08-29, accepted in 2023-04-26,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundColorectal cancer (CRC) is a frequent cancer worldwide with varied survival outcomes.ObjectiveWe aimed to develop a nomogram model to predict the overall survival (OS) of CRC patients after surgery.DesignThis is a retrospective study.SettingThis study was conducted from 2015 to 2016 in a single tertiary center for CRC.PatientsCRC patients who underwent surgery between 2015 and 2016 were enrolled and randomly assigned into the training (n = 480) and validation (n = 206) groups. The risk score of each subject was calculated based on the nomogram. All participants were categorized into two subgroups according to the median value of the score.Main outcome measuresThe clinical characteristics of all patients were collected, significant prognostic variables were determined by univariate analysis. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was applied for variable selection. The tuning parameter (λ) for LASSO regression was determined by cross-validation. Independent prognostic variables determined by multivariable analysis were used to establish the nomogram. The predictive capacity of the model was assessed by risk group stratification.ResultsInfiltration depth, macroscopic classification, BRAF, carbohydrate antigen 19 − 9 (CA-199) levels, N stage, M stage, TNM stage, carcinoembryonic antigen levels, number of positive lymph nodes, vascular tumor thrombus, and lymph node metastasis were independent prognostic factors. The nomogram established based on these factors exhibited good discriminatory capacity. The concordance indices for the training and validation groups were 0.796 and 0.786, respectively. The calibration curve suggested favorable agreement between predictions and observations. Moreover, the OS of different risk subgroups was significantly different.LimitationsThe limitations of this work included small sample size and single-center design. Also, some prognostic factors could not be included due to the retrospective design.ConclusionsA prognostic nomogram for predicting the OS of CRC patients after surgery was developed, which might be helpful for evaluating the prognosis of CRC patients.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2023

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