Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study

Wellcome Open Research

article

Karl J. Friston¹  Thomas Parr¹  Peter Zeidman¹  Adeel Razi¹  Guillaume Flandin¹  Jean Daunizeau³  Oliver J. Hulme⁴  Alexander J. Billig⁶  Vladimir Litvak¹  Cathy J. Price¹  Rosalyn J. Moran⁷  Anthony Costello⁸  Deenan Pillay⁹  Christian Lambert¹ 

[1] The Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London;Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University;Institut du Cerveau et de la Moelle épinière;Danish Research Centre for Magnetic Resonance, Centre for Functional and Diagnostic Imaging and Research, Copenhagen University Hospital;London Mathematical Laboratory;UCL Ear Institute, University College London;Centre for Neuroimaging Science, Department of Neuroimaging, IoPPN, King's College London;UCL Institute for Global Health, Institute of Child Health, University College London;UCL Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London

关键词: coronavirus;    epidemiology;    compartmental models;    dynamic causal modelling;    variational;    Bayesian;   

DOI  :  10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16253.2

学科分类：内科医学

来源: Wellcome

【 摘 要 】

This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions.

【 授权许可】

CC BY