Wellcome Open Research | |
Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study | |
article | |
Karl J. Friston1  Thomas Parr1  Peter Zeidman1  Adeel Razi1  Guillaume Flandin1  Jean Daunizeau3  Oliver J. Hulme4  Alexander J. Billig6  Vladimir Litvak1  Cathy J. Price1  Rosalyn J. Moran7  Anthony Costello8  Deenan Pillay9  Christian Lambert1  | |
[1] The Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging, University College London;Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University;Institut du Cerveau et de la Moelle épinière;Danish Research Centre for Magnetic Resonance, Centre for Functional and Diagnostic Imaging and Research, Copenhagen University Hospital;London Mathematical Laboratory;UCL Ear Institute, University College London;Centre for Neuroimaging Science, Department of Neuroimaging, IoPPN, King's College London;UCL Institute for Global Health, Institute of Child Health, University College London;UCL Division of Infection and Immunity, University College London | |
关键词: coronavirus; epidemiology; compartmental models; dynamic causal modelling; variational; Bayesian; | |
DOI : 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16253.2 | |
学科分类:内科医学 | |
来源: Wellcome | |
【 摘 要 】
This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions.
【 授权许可】
CC BY
【 预 览 】
Files | Size | Format | View |
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RO202307130000830ZK.pdf | 2432KB | download |