Errors and Uncertainties in Dose Reconstruction for Radiation Effects Research

Strom, Daniel J.

关键词: BOMBS;    IONIZING RADIATIONS;    MINERS;    NEVADA TEST SITE;    ORGANS;    RADIATION DOSES;    RADIATION EFFECTS;    URANIUM uncertainty;    error;    variability;    dosimetry;    dose reconstruction;    epidemiology;    ionizing radiation;    Mayak Production Association;    Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER);    plutonium;    medical x-rays;    gamma radiation;    beta radiation;    neutron radiation;    lognormal distribution;    Berkson errors;    classical errors;    shared uncertainty;   

DOI  :  10.2172/935615
RP-ID  :  PNNL-17465
PID  :  OSTI ID: 935615
Others  :  Other: HU2006300
Others  :  TRN: US0804660

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

Dose reconstruction for studies of the health effects of ionizing radiation have been carried out for many decades. Major studies have included Japanese bomb survivors, atomic veterans, downwinders of the Nevada Test Site and Hanford, underground uranium miners, and populations of nuclear workers. For such studies to be credible, significant effort must be put into applying the best science to reconstructing unbiased absorbed doses to tissues and organs as a function of time. In many cases, more and more sophisticated dose reconstruction methods have been developed as studies progressed. For the example of the Japanese bomb survivors, the dose surrogate “distance from the hypocenter” was replaced by slant range, and then by TD65 doses, DS86 doses, and more recently DS02 doses. Over the years, it has become increasingly clear that an equal level of effort must be expended on the quantitative assessment of uncertainty in such doses, and to reducing and managing uncertainty. In this context, this paper reviews difficulties in terminology, explores the nature of Berkson and classical uncertainties in dose reconstruction through examples, and proposes a path forward for Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER) Project 2.4 that requires a reasonably small level of effort for DOSES-2008.