The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

PeerJ

article

Ren-Yan Duan¹  Xiao-Quan Kong²  Min-Yi Huang²  Sara Varela³  Xiang Ji¹ 

[1] Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Biotechnology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University;College of Life Sciences, Anqing Normal University;Departamento de Ciencias de la Vida, Edificio de Ciencias, Campus Externo, Universidad de Alcalá;Museum für Naturkunde, Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science

关键词: MaxEnt;    Dispersal;    Turnover;    Distribution;    Climate impacts;    Fragmentation;    Range shifts;    Amphibians;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.2185

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137–4,124 m to 286–4,396 m in the 2050s or 314–4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

【 授权许可】

CC BY