A game-theoretic model of Monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies

PeerJ

article

Sri Vibhaav Bankuru¹  Samuel Kossol¹  William Hou²  Parsa Mahmoudi³  Jan Rychtář⁴  Dewey Taylor⁴ 

[1] Department of Biomedical Engineering, Virginia Commonwealth University;Department of Kinesiology and Health Sciences, Virginia Commonwealth University;Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University;Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, Virginia Commonwealth University

关键词: Monkeypox;    Game theory;    Nash equilibrium;    Smallpox;    Vaccination;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.9272

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease similar to smallpox. Its fatality rate is about 11% and it is endemic to the Central and West African countries. In this paper, we analyze a compartmental model of MPX dynamics. Our goal is to see whether MPX can be controlled and eradicated by voluntary vaccinations. We show that there are three equilibria—disease free, fully endemic and previously neglected semi-endemic (with disease existing only among humans). The existence of semi-endemic equilibrium has severe implications should the MPX virus mutate to increased viral fitness in humans. We find that MPX is controllable and can be eradicated in a semi-endemic equilibrium by vaccination. However, in a fully endemic equilibrium, MPX cannot be eradicated by vaccination alone.

【 授权许可】

CC BY